Bitcoin Price Faces Pressure Ahead of FOMC Meeting

At the beginning of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) faced significant selling pressure, dropping from $84,500 on March 17 to $81,300 at the time of writing. This decline is likely linked to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for March 18-19. Historically, FOMC meetings act as market resets, prompting traders to de-risk and reduce leverage ahead of the announcements. The outcome of the FOMC meeting, particularly the press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, often leads to sharp reactions in the crypto markets, making it crucial for traders to analyze market behavior leading up to the event.

Traders are particularly focused on the FOMC minutes for any indications regarding shifts in the Fed’s stance on inflation and interest rates. Bitcoin’s price has shown a tendency to react sharply following FOMC announcements, with notable declines observed after the Fed maintained rates in early 2024. Interestingly, a pattern has emerged this month where Bitcoin’s open interest has not decreased significantly before the FOMC meeting, despite a previous shakeout of $12 billion. This could suggest that traders are feeling less anxious about the Fed’s decision, with a 99% probability indicated by CME Group’s FedWatch tool that rates will remain unchanged.

In contrast to Bitcoin whales, investors in spot Bitcoin ETFs have historically reduced their BTC holdings before FOMC meetings. However, on March 17, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $275 million in net inflows, signaling a potential shift in investor sentiment. This increase in inflows may indicate that investors are anticipating a more dovish stance from the Fed or are using Bitcoin as a hedge against uncertainty. The upcoming FOMC announcement is expected to result in significant price movements for BTC, with traders anticipating that the Fed’s statements could either lift the markets or drive prices lower, emphasizing the need for careful observation of post-FOMC price action and on-chain data.